Don’T Believe All You See On Tv

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The television’s 24-hour news cycle confuses me regularly, especially when it comes to real estate reporting.

As you can imagine, being in the real estate business, you read many related publications, hear the talking heads on the tube, read e-mails from real estate experts and look at real estate industry articles on the web.

The confusion lies in contradicting stories on whether the real estate market is good, bad, or somewhere in between.

It seems that evening news anchors are handed something to read with no real knowledge or concern of what they are reporting.

How could the people who “supposedly” report the real estate news (and all the other news) be experts on what they are reading? The reality is those who have been in the real estate business for 20 something years do not proclaim to be experts because we are in uncharted waters, however, we do have the ability to look at material statistics in local markets.

Recently, the national news reported statistics that the housing market is backpedaling, however, if you look at the Phoenix market and what the statistics say, it isn’t necessarily so.

For example, I get statistics from the Cromford Report. The Cromford Report uses real time data from the Phoenix market to give us a true picture of the state of our industry in the Phoenix metro area.

It is not sugar-coated because it is purely facts based on homes on the market and homes sold.

At the end of last month, the Cromford Report showed for the first time since November of 2005 that the number of active listings for sale in the Phoenix market is slightly lower than normal.

On March 2, there were 40,200 active listings and on June 2, 31,200 active listings.

The report concludes that if the trend continues, there may actually be a shortage of homes available in the Phoenix market.

It is amazing how statistics can contradict what we hear on television.

Please don’t discern that all is well in the housing market, but what the report illustrates is that you cannot capture a true picture of local housing markets with a 30-second blurb.

And as far as the so-called experts, remember the Wall Street Journal’s experiment with dart-throwing monkeys.

Back in 1988, Wall Street Journal reporters, acting as monkeys, threw darts at a stock table, and after six months, compared their results with experts’ picks.

The results: the monkeys outperformed the experts 39 percent of the time.

Ray Pugel is a designated broker for Coldwell Banker Bishop Realty. Contact him at (928) 474-2216.

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