Flu and RSV spreading quickly in Gila County

Epidemiologists predict a severe RSV and flu season this year, after two mild seasons likely produced by all our efforts to contain COVID.

Statewide, cases of flu and RSV have risen steeply in the past few weeks.

That includes 36 reported cases of RSV and eight flu cases in Gila County.

That just includes the lab-confirmed cases. Actual cases are much higher, since most people who suffer from either of the potentially fatal respiratory viruses figure they just have a bad cold and don’t get tested.

The flu shot this year works pretty well against the dominant circulating strain, according to the federal Centers for Disease Control. Typically, the flu shot reduces risk of infection and serious illness by 40%-60%. The CDC recommends flu shots for everyone older than 6 months, unless they have specific risk factors — including pregnancy and some chronic health conditions and people with egg allergies or a history of allergic reaction to the vaccine.

High priority groups for a flu vaccine include children aged 6 months to 4 years, people older than 50 and people with chronic pulmonary, cardiovascular, renal, hepatic, neurological, hematologic or metabolic disorders — including asthma and diabetes. Other high-risk groups include people with immune system issues, nursing home residents, Native Americans, health care personnel and their families and others.

For guidelines on the flu shot go to (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/whoshouldvax.htm).

In a normal year, the flu kills 30,000 to 40,000 Americans. But the notorious flu pandemic in 1918-20 likely killed more than 60 million people worldwide. In 2019-20, the CDC estimates the flu in the U.S. infected 36 million people, caused 16 million medical visits and 400,000 hospitalizations. It killed an estimated 25,000 people (with a range on the estimate of from 3,700 to 20,000), according to the CDC.

The flu this season has already hit the East Coast hard. So far with the flu season just starting, the flu has infected at least 2.8 million, hospitalized 23,000 and killed 1,300, according to the CDC. The flu has hospitalized 5 in 100,000 people in the U.S. — the highest rate at this time of the year since 2010.

The RSV respiratory virus is also hitting hard, with no vaccine to slow its spread. Several vaccines are in development for RSV.

The RSV virus is especially dangerous for younger children. It typically presents as a cold. RSV caused a few hundred deaths annually in the U.S. among younger children and about 14,000 deaths among adults — usually people older than 65. The toll also includes about $1 billion annually for medical bills and lost productivity. It consists of just 11 genes, about the same number as the flu virus. Symptoms include runny nose, reduced appetite, coughing, sneezing, wheezing and sometimes a mild fever. Symptoms show up four to six days after exposure and typically last for a week or two.

Like COVID and the flu, RSV is mostly airborne — and gets access to the body through the sinuses. Like COVID, people can spread the virus for three to eight days — often before they have any symptoms.

Young children are about four times as likely to end up in the hospital during an infection, mostly because of their smaller air passages — which get cut off by the inflammation caused by the immune system’s response to the virus. Nonetheless, only about 2% of infected children under the age of 6 months are hospitalized — and death is rare.

The flu and RSV typically spread in the winter when people spend a lot of time indoors — but the first two winters during the COVID pandemic proved exceptionally mild. This probably reflects the impact of the precautions taken to cope with COVID — which spreads in pretty much the same way. So people avoided crowds, remained at home, wore masks and isolated when they developed respiratory symptoms — all of which likely reduced the spread of the flu and RSV viruses as well.

However, it also meant that many people who would have gotten the flu and RSV didn’t. That left a much larger population of people who had not developed immunity, especially among children. That could contribute to a severe run of both these viruses this winter. That could account for the severe RSV and flu season in Australia and other Southern Hemisphere countries during their winter season — which is our summer.

Interestingly, getting the flu shot could actually protect against COVID — which is also currently surging in Gila County.

One study of 30,000 health care workers in Qatar found that those who got the flu shot were 90% less likely to develop severe COVID-19 over the next few months. They were also 30% less likely to become infected in the first place. Researchers aren’t sure how to account for those results, according to a summary of the findings in the journal Nature.

The flu vaccine uses killed viruses to alert the immune system to live flu viruses. It’s likely that the flu virus not only prompts the body to produce antibodies to specific components of the vaccine — but also activates other, broader immune system responses. So it’s unclear whether a flu shot could provide lasting protection from the COVID virus.

The Arizona Department of Health Services is now sounding the alarm — both about the onset of the flu season and the rapid increase in COVID cases — especially in Gila County.

That adds urgency to the advice doctors have been offering for months.

Get your COVID shot — and booster.

And get your flu shot.

Get tested and isolate if you develop symptoms.

And don’t spread the virus to others.